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Forecasting Models for Customer Behavior and Lifetime Value
Course Outline and Schedule
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----- First Day -----
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08:30 AM - 08:45 AM Introduction
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08:45 AM - 10:15 AM Session I
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INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY MODELS (I): How to develop (and implement in Excel) a simple probability model for projecting customer retention. Comparing and contrasting this approach with more traditional regression models.
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10:15 AM - 10:30 AM Coffee Break
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10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Session II
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INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY MODELS (II): Stepping back: what are probability models and what kinds of managerial decisions can they address? Two more live applications: forecasting new product adoption (models for duration data) and projecting media exposure (models for count data).
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12:00 PM - 01:15 PM Lunch Break
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01:15 PM - 03:00 PM Session III
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MAKING INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL PREDICTIONS: Introducing and using “conditional expectations” to create our best guess of what an individual will do in the future as a function of past behavior. Application in the area of predicting response to a direct marketing offer (models for choice data).
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03:00 PM - 03:15 PM Coffee Break
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03:15 PM - 05:00 PM Session IV
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BRINGING IN COVARIATES: How to introduce demographics, marketing mix effects, and other external factors into these probability models. Assessing the statistical and managerial significance of these variables.
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----- Second Day -----
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08:30 AM - 10:15 AM Session V
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USING PROBABILITY MODELS FOR CUSTOMER-BASE ANALYSIS: Comparison of modeling approaches; classifying analysis settings; the right way to think about computing customer lifetime value (CLV).
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10:15 AM - 10:30 AM Coffee Break
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10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Session VI
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MODELS FOR CONTRACTUAL SETTINGS: Basic models of contract duration. Application: valuing an existing customer base. The perils of ignoring heterogeneity when valuing customers and determining retention elasticities.
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12:00 PM - 01:15 PM Lunch Break
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01:15 PM - 03:00 PM Session VII
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MODELS FOR NONCONTRACTUAL SETTINGS (I): Modeling the basic transaction process; modeling the spend process. Criteria for evaluating models. Use models to compute CLV given RFM measures. Case study.
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03:00 PM - 03:15 PM Coffee Break
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03:15 PM - 04:30 PM Session VIII
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MODELS FOR NONCONTRACTUAL SETTINGS (II): Modifying basic models to facilitate implementation in Excel. Modifying models for discrete-time settings. Review of all tools and Excel spreadsheets. How to start applying these models at your firm.
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04:30 PM - 04:45 PM Concluding Remarks
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What Past Participants Have Said About This Seminar
Verbatim evaluations from participants who have attended the "Forecasting Models for Customer Behavior and Lifetime Value" seminar.
Names of evaluators have been left out as a matter of professional courtesy.
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"The content was extremely innovative and is not something you would hear about in 99% of other marketing research seminars, workshops, or conferences. (Speakers) were EXCELLENT teachers/facilitators. I have taken a number of statistics courses and workshops and these were two of the best teachers at being able to explain complex statistics in an a fairly intuitive manner. The plethora of real world examples definitely helped."
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Vice President, Statistical Sciences, Walker Information
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"I really like this seminar. (Speakers) are real experts in this field and the seminar expanded my knowledge in this field. However, their models are based on individual-level data while my job is to analyze aggregate data, which the models can not apply to. But I do think Burke should have more of this kind of high level seminar that definitely stimulate intellectual understanding of marketing and also boost the level of statistical skills. (Speakers) have very strong background and I feel like I was sitting in my graduate class and was taught by the best in this field."
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Motorcycle Market Analyst, Honda R&D Americas, Inc.
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"The seminar pulled together years of research on the topic of forecasting and consumer choice, in a clear understandable format. I have completed undergraduate work in mathematical probability & the course was perfect for my level of understanding. (Speakers) are lively and interesting presenters. Their styles complement each other quite well. They involve the class in the process of problem-solving, which keeps interest & alertness at a fairly high level."
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Senior Research Specialist, Northwestern Mutual
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